My Notes and Market Update After Attedning i.con West 2024

Below are my bullet point notes and takeaways from attending the Industrial Real Estate Conference (I.CON West) hosted by NAIOP in Long Beach, CA. Please reach out if you have any questions or would like to discuss further. - Nick Provenzano / [email protected]

• "Class A" Industrial Real Estate supply has rebalanced from the boom of pandemic-related demands and accelerated E-Commerce growth. 
• Multiple primary western markets are estimating a surplus of 3 years' worth of new supply, causing lease rates to flatten. New leases are still happening and this product will be absorbed, but it's very competitive and tenant's have options to chose from. 
• U.S-Mexico trade is now outpacing U.S-China trade by more than 40%, which could indicate the trajectory of Industrial assets that are strategically located in Southern California and surrounding western tertiary markets.
• "Buying power" has shifted and seems to be in favor of the Owner-User over the Developer/Investor. Owner-User's  are slightly less affected by capital markets and interest rates. In Boise, we've witnessed new record-high sale comps set by owner-users between 2023-2024. 
• Developers are telling me there is minimal appetite for new speculative development. Most new land development projects need a tenant in tow (or build-to-suit).  
• Investor capital has been patient but is eager to be deployed towards value-add assets and/or future redevelopment projects with an attractive land basis. These deals are still extremely tough to "pencil" since cap rates have trended upwards with interest rates. 
• Several people asked me and are curious to know: What are the market drivers in Boise? I believe the answer is summarized by (1). Population growth and (2). Inward migration due to Boise's attractive qualities such as its access to a mixture of outdoor and urban amenities, low crime rates, and economic stability with affordable housing supported by a business-friendly environment. ​